Polling Indicates Major Shakeup Likely At City Hall This Election

Today, Common Sense Calgary released a full set of mayoral and ward-by-ward poll results for the upcoming municipal election, based on a sample size of nearly 5000 across the city.

In a city where incumbents tend to dominate re-election campaigns, several councillors are facing stiffer than expected competition from candidates promising change on council, while reformers are resonating with voters in open wards.

These poll results are part of an independently commissioned, ward-by-ward municipal election poll.

Participants in each ward were asked, "of the following mayoral candidates, who would you be most likely to vote for?"

The results show that:

Bill Smith is 12 points ahead of his nearest competitor Naheed Nenshi.

 

Participants in each ward were also asked, "of the following candidates, who would you be most likely to vote for in your local ward?"

The results show that:

In Ward 1, Ward Sutherland holds a 24-point lead over his nearest competitor

In Ward 2, Joe Magliocca holds a 17-point lead over his nearest competitor

In Ward 3, newcomer Jyoti Gondek holds only a 1-point lead in a tight race against her nearest competitor Ian McAnerin

In Ward 4, Sean Chu holds a 29-point lead over his nearest competitor

In Ward 5, newcomer George Chahal holds a 17-point lead over his nearest competitor Raj Nijjar

In Ward 6, newcomer Jeff Davison holds a 12-point lead over his nearest competitor Esmahan Razavi

In Ward 7, Druh Farrell holds only a 2-point lead over Brent Alexander

In Ward 8, Evan Woolley holds only a 1-point lead over Chris Davis

In Ward 9, Gian-Carlo Carra holds only a 1-point lead over Cheryl Link

In Ward 10, Ray Jones holds a 13-point lead over his nearest competitor

In Ward 11, newcomer Jeromy Farkas holds a 22-point lead over his nearest competitor Linda Johnson

In Ward 12, Shane Keating holds a 31-point lead over his nearest competitor

In Ward 13, Dianne Colley-Urquhart holds a 22-point lead over her nearest competitor

In Ward 14, Peter Demong holds a commanding 49-point lead against his only challenger

 

 

FULL RESULTS:

 

Mayor:

Andre Chabot - 5.16%

Naheed Nenshi - 32.10%

Bill Smith - 43.42% 

All other - 6.65%

Undecided - 12.67%

 

Ward 1:

Cole Christensen - 1.19%

Chris Blatch - 6.89%

Ward Sutherland - 40.86%

Coral Bliss Taylor - 16.86%

Cam Khan - 2.14%

Undecided - 32.07%

 

Ward 2:

Jennifer Wyness - 18.39%

Joe Magliocca - 35.63%

George Georgeou - 3.16%

Christopher Maitland - 7.47%

Undecided - 35.34%

 

Ward 3:

Jun Lin - 11.38%

Jyoti Gondek - 21.14%

Ian McAnerin - 19.92%

Connie Hamilton - 2.85%

Undecided - 44.72%

 

Ward 4:

Srini Ganti - 1.39%

Blair Berdusco - 5.82%

Sean Chu - 49.31%

Greg Miller - 20.78%

Undecided - 22.71%

 

Ward 5:

Balraj (Raj) Nijjar - 6.92%

George Chahal - 23.85%

Tudor Dinca - 5.38%

Hirde Paul Jassal - 3.85%

Aryan Sadat - 6.15%

Sarbdeep Baidwan - 3.85%

Undecided - 50.00%

 

Ward 6:

Sanjeev Kad - 1.24%

Esmahan Razavi - 12.53%

Sean Yost - 6.19%

Jeff Davison - 24.46%

Grace Nelson - 3.41%

Alex Columbos - 2.17%

Steve Turner - 1.55%

Jeff Brownridge - 4.64%

Undecided - 43.82%

 

Ward 7:

Marek Hejduk - 0.71%

Brent Alexander - 27.40%

Druh Farrell - 29.89%

Margot Aftergood - 9.96%

Dean Brawn - 12.18%

Undecided - 19.85%

 

Ward 8:

Karla Charest - 2.71%

Evan Woolley - 31.85%

Chris Davis - 30.53%

Carter Thomson - 1.36%

Undecided - 33.56%

 

Ward 9:

Omar M’Keyo - 0.90%

Cheryl Link - 21.88%

Cesar Saavedra - 1.79%

Boss Madimba - 1.49%

Gian-Carlo Carra - 22.99%

Trevor Buckler - 3.28%

David Metcalfe- 5.07%

Undecided - 42.60%

 

Ward 10:

Najeeb Butt - 4.41%

Numan Elhussein - 3.08%

Gar Gar - 1.23%

Faith Greaves - 2.76%

Ray Jones - 17.43%

Salimah Kassam - 3.58%

Issa Mosa - 3.11%

Hermann Muller - 2.23%

Kamilla Prasad - 1.67%

Michelle Robinson - 2.82%

David Winkler - 4.58%

Undecided - 53.09%

           

Ward 11:

Keith Simmons - 2.22%

Janet Eremenko - 7.11%

Jeromy Farkas - 33.33%

Robert Dickison - 7.11%

Linda Johnson - 10.89%

Undecided - 39.33%

           

Ward 12:        

Brad Cunningham - 7.02%

Teresa Hargreaves - 9.94%

Shane Keating - 41.20%

Mackenzie Quigley - 4.68%

Undecided - 37.16%

 

Ward 13         

Adam Frisch - 5.45%

Art Johnston - 10.82%

Dianne Colley-Urquhart - 33.09%

Sherrisa Celis - 5.82%

Mark Dyrholm - 6.91%

Adam Boechler - 4.00%

Kay Adeniyi - 1.45%

Undecided - 32.45%

 

Ward 14:

Kelash Kumar - 7.20%

Peter Demong - 56.56%

Undecided - 36.25%

 

This polling research was conducted by Pantheon Research between September 29, 2017 through October 2, 2017, via Interactive voice response (IVR), using a random sample of 4887 Calgarians, distributed across every ward.

The margin of error for each ward is: W1 - 4.76%, W2 - 4.82%, W3 - 4.71%, W4 - 5.15%, W5 - 5.8%, W6 - 5.43%, W7 - 5.74%, W8 - 5.42%, W9 - 5.34%, W10 - 6.1%, W11 - 4.6%, W12 - 5.52%, W13 - 5.73%, W14 - 4.96%